E3 is next month, and many RPG fans are hoping for big news from Bethesda about its upcoming RPGs. The studio behindSkyrimhas kept many of the details about its upcoming projects under wraps. Fans hoping forFallout 5, however, are very likely to be disappointed.
While it’s hard to truly know what’s going on behind-the-scenes at Bethesda Game Studios, there are some good reasons to think thatFallout5is unlikely to have entered even the earliest stages of development.
RELATED:New Vegas Mods Prove It Needs a Remake Before Fallout 5 Releases
Bethesda’s Timeline
While Bethesda has been withholding many of the key details about its upcoming projects, it has been confirmed which projects are currently being worked on at Bethesda Game Studios. As it stands the studio is currently prioritizing thedevelopment ofStarfield, a space-set RPG which will be Bethesda’s first new IP in over 25 years.
The other project isThe Elder Scrolls 6. Originally announced back at E3 2018, very little information has been revealed about the next game in the iconic fantasy series, not even theprovince of Tamrielit will take place in. What has been confirmed, however, is thatThe Elder Scrolls 6will not be releasing until afterStarfield.
Rumors began circulating recently thatStarfieldis on-track for a 2021 release, despite so many games being delayed in the past year. This was based on the game’s name being copyrighted for the year 2021, which has corresponded to the year Bethesda games have been released in the past.
This is far from confirmation ofStarfield’s release window, however. It is likely that more ofStarfieldwill be shown at E3 2021with a release date announced for some point in the next two years. So far, fans have only had a few leaked images ofStarfieldto go on since the game’s initial reveal three years ago, and the upcoming RPG is certainly due some details. If the release date is announced at E3 this will in-turn help fans get a better idea of the release window ofThe Elder Scrolls 6.
Most speculation places therelease ofThe Elder Scrolls 6some time around 2026. This makes it likely thatThe Elder Scrolls 6is still in the early stages of development. In fact,Starfielditself is likely to be a fruitful testing ground for some of the features speculated to be included in both games. These include survival mechanics, base-building, and the larger, procedurally generated open worlds mentioned by Todd Howard at Brighton Digital 2020.
It is possible that the end ofStarfield’s development could seeFallout 5become a secondary project at Bethesda Game Studios. Even if that is the case, however, it likely putsFallout 5’s releasecloser to 2030 than the present day. There is another possibility, however.
RELATED:Fallout 76 Reveals Season 4: Cold Steel Content Roadmap
Third-Party Fallout
There have been several leaks from reliable industry insiders that have claimed that asequel toFallout: New Vegasis in development. What exactly is meant by this is unclear. It could mean that a game will be released that continues the story ofFallout: New Vegasin some way. It could also refer to the circumstances surroundingNew Vegas' development, referring to aFalloutgame developed by a third-party developer. After Obsidian Entertainment and Bethesda’s falling out following the release of the firstNew Vegas, the return of Obsidian seems unlikely. Nonetheless, it is possible that a newFalloutgame could be on the way, just not from Bethesda Game Studios.
This would allow a newFalloutgame to be developed at the same time BGS is working onStarfieldandThe Elder Scrolls 6. Like the originalNew Vegas, aFalloutgame developed by a third party would likely use the same engine and assets as the last installment of the single-playerFalloutgames, in this caseFallout 4. As such it remains possible that aFalloutgame could be released at some point in the next couple of years, but if that game is developed by a studio other than Bethesda it is unlikely to mark a generational leap forward.Fallout: New Vegasis beloved among fans of the franchise, however, so a return to the spin-off series may still be welcomed with open arms.
Bethesda’s Sci-Fi RPGs
There are other reasons Bethesda may not want to release aFalloutgame over the next few years, even if that game could be developed by another studio. TheFalloutfranchise has taken a few big hits in recent years.Todd Howard recently describedFallout 76as having “let a lot of people down.” It is possible that Bethesda may want to putFallouton the back-burner afterFallout 4andFallout 76were released in relatively rapid succession.
Not only that, but Obsidian’sThe Outer Worldshas created more competition in the satirical sci-fi RPG market. Paired with the disappointing reception ofFallout 76this could make a newFalloutgame a far riskier bet than it would have been five years ago. While it’s clear thatStarfieldoperates in a very different part of the sci-fi genre thanFallout’s Americana-infused apocalypse, Bethesda may also want to avoid having two sci-fi RPGs release too close to one another.
Bethesda has relied onThe Elder ScrollsandFalloutfor over two decades.Starfieldmarks a change of tack which leaves the studio’s future far less predictable that it has been in the past.Starfieldcould see Bethesda leave theFalloutfranchiseon the backburner, especially if the new IP ends up being a hit. With the developer going through a period of transition, the future ofFalloutis likely deeply tied to the reception of bothStarfieldandThe Elder Scrolls 6. While that makes it unlikely thatFallout 5is in development, it also means the door is not closed on the franchise just yet.
Fallout 5has not been announced.
MORE:Every Major Villain In The Fallout Series, Ranked According To How Evil They Are
